chapotraphouse

Israel and Turkey exist in a symbiotic relationship. Both act as pressure valves for the other. It is no coincidence that Turkey and Israel clashing over Syrian territory comes at the very moment both regimes are under existential threat from their citizenry.

Statescraftsmen on both sides have a shared interest in escalating the situation within a demilitarised common neighbour. If the situation gets too hot, both sides are able to withdraw within their "sovereign" borders.

Both sides also have a vested interest in mitigating the conflict. Neither side wants a direct war, or a war that becomes so expensive and bloody that the benefits of fighting it become moot. The odd bombing of either side's trenches with a loud warning beforehand is likely the kind of "fighting" we'll see, just as Russia and Turkey interacted in thsi theatre for years before.

Turkey has the domestic benefits of:

• Being seen as "stabilising" Syria, thus allowing millions of refugees to return. This has caused economic and social pressures for all of Syria's neighbours.

• Dismantling Kurdish and politically-radical communities on the border of Turkish territories which were in open rebellion up until a few years ago at the latest.

• Expanding the borders of Turkey towards the irredentist goal of a "neo-Ottoman" empire.

Israel has the domestic benefits of:

• Denying Iran a land route to supplying Hezbollah with military supplies needed to recover from the 2024 invasion. This helps ensure the balance of power in Lebanon is as much in favour of the Government/Army as possible.

• Establishing fire control and reconnaissance over souther hours Lebanon and Syria via Mount Hermon. This is necessary to fulfill the goal of returning Israeli IDPs into settlements near the Lebanese border.

• Cheaply dismantling Syrian military infrastructure to permanently deter opposition to Israeli military goals in the future. Such as maintaining a neutral buffer state for Israeli warplanes to traverse to attack Iran from the north.

• Expanding the borders of Israel towards the irredentist goal of a "Greater Israel".

Both states are invested in turning Syria into their shared battleground for as long as possible, and if anything this began long before Assad's government collapsed.