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https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12595 US-Canada trade amounts to $920B
Canadian GDP roughly $2.1T
Or roughly equivalent to ~40% of GDP depending on the year
it will be painful for US but whatever US feels, Canada & Mexico will feel 3x worse (and that number can go up 10x worse if they retaliate)
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-25-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-will-be-a-blow-to-all-3-economies/
go to figure 1. us economy might slow ~0.3%. canada & mexico go into recession. -3% easy with retaliation
note the tariffs are stupid and reckless and cruel and i don't support them at all. im just adding context because i did not realize how fucked Mexico & Canada were until I looked into it
Yes, but the $920b you're quoting is bilateral. That's the total value of the trade relationship in goods. $450b is the value of Canada's exports to the US, with the remainder representing US exports to Canada.
I have also seen the 3% figure for Canada, and don't dispute that. The Atlanta fed is also predicting around the same for the US. Don't forget, the US is attacking all of its trade partners at once, not just Canada.
What are you taking issue with? I said sky is blue and you say "yes you're right but the grass is green".
Canadian trade with America- of which both imports and exports are counted, as you yourself stated- represents a value which is roughly 43% of Canadian GDP.
The US may suffer more than the 0.3% in an overall sense because of trade war with other countries, OK. But the impacts from these specific tariffs- the topic of the conversation- are expected to be -0.3% for US and -3% for Canada & Mexico.
I was pointing out 2 things
A) Canada (and Mexico) are relatively small economies that have become increasingly dependent on US trade and foreign investment.
B) Because of this, they are going to experience a much worse fallout from a trade war- about an order of magnitude.
Mexican & Canadian trade combined don't even reach 4% of US GDP. They simply do not have the leverage to hurt the US in the same way US can hurt them.
Am I making the argument Trump is correct in this decision-making? No he's a fascist who wants to hurt foreigners just as much as he wants to hurt Americans.
Am I making the argument America is going to be immune from trade wars? No, it's gonna fuck all of us. And if we continue to escalate trade war with China and EU we will start seeing much worse effects.
We may be talking past each other, but in any case, I don't think that is a useful way of presenting this information.
Gross domestic product calculates only for the net effect of imports and exports. That is to say, the balance of trade.
56% of Canada's GDP is consumer spending. 19% is investment. 23% is government spending. And 2% is net exports.
That's the $2.2/2.3 trillion GDP of Canada broken down. Yes, it's technically true to say that the trade relationship represents a value roughly equivalent to 40% of Canada's GDP, but I don't believe that's very helpful framing.
Using the same method, we might say that the various trade relationships of the US represent a value that is roughly 25% of US GDP.
If Canada's GDP, an acronym that many people take to be synonymous with 'economy', was 40% US trade, we'd be talking about more than a 3% recession.
I can't help but think of the 'length of a football field' or 'weight of an elephant' mode of analysis.
Also, your definition of the fallout this could create seems very limited in scope, but I take your point that you are only defining said fallout within the confines of the immediate and specific effects of the tarrifs themselves, and not all the various ripple effects.
Otherwise, we probably agree more than we disagree. Trump's a cunt is about what it boils down to for me.