technology

I’m afraid that we’re going to lose real capability as a society.

The US has far bigger problems than LLMs to worry about in the near future. Personally, I'd be far more worried about the rate of deindustrialization in the states, lack of people who know trades, engineers, farmers, and so on. All of that is far more crucial than the software industry. Meanwhile, even if people started losing this expertise, it's not like it can't be learned again if needed. The whole software industry has only existed for a handful of decades, and society got on just fine before it appeared. This is just complete hyperbole I'm afraid.

What I think is most likely to happen with serious engineering going forward is that the human aspect of the work will shift towards writing formal specifications that encode the desired constraints for the system, including things like memory usage, runtime complexity, and so on, and then having LLMs figure out how to generate code that passes the spec.

Incidentally, you can do this stuff without LLMs as well, for example Barliman is a program synthesis engine that is able to take a signature for a function and figure out an implementation, it can even compose functions it already wrote to solve more complex problems. Combining something like that with LLMs could be very effective.

I see this is as a similar advancement as creation of high level languages. Plenty of people moaned that nobody learned assembly anymore when C showed up, and making very similar arguments to the ones you're making. Then people started moaning about garbage collection, and how you weren't a real programmer if you weren't managing memory by hand. Every time a new technology comes around that makes programming easier and more accessible, there are inevitably people screaming that the sky is falling. LLMs is just the latest iteration of this phenomenon.

And more people struggling on the bus because we have more automation is a result of capitalist relations. That's where the ire should be directed.