An interesting question is would there even be a 9/11? Not even from a Bush did 9/11 position (or any variation of Cheney and him intentionally letting it happen). The official narrative the 9/11 commission cited the contested election and slowdown from the handover from incumbent dem to ingoing republican as contributing to the 9/11 not being prevented. Like had the hijackers just all been arrested weeks before it happening it would be a real different vibe to the start of the 21th century.

But I think had it happened some sort of war on terror probably would have happened. Even possibly an Afghanistan invasion. But I don't think the Iraq invasion and occupation would have happened as that was Cheney and Rumsfield's thing. I think something closer to Obama and Clinton, with bombings, arming rebels, drone strikes, special forces and limited deployments over the middle east would probably have still happened.