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Economic growth could fall 50% over 20 years from climate shocks, say actuaries (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 6 days ago by HellsBelle@sh.itjust.works to c/world@lemmy.world

27 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Global economic growth could plummet by 50% between 2070 and 2090 from the catastrophic shocks of climate change unless immediate action by political leaders is taken to decarbonise and restore nature, according to a new report.

The stark warning from risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. In a report with scientists at the University of Exeter, published on Thursday, the IFoA, which uses maths and statistics to analyse financial risk for businesses and governments, called for accelerated action by political leaders to tackle the climate crisis.

Their report was published after data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed climate breakdown drove the annual global temperature above the internationally agreed 1.5C target for the first time in 2024, supercharging extreme weather.

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[–] WhatAmLemmy@lemmy.world 20 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (3 children)

All of our modeling doesn't account for enormous (potentially catastrophic) confounding and compounding variables which are too hard to estimate because we have a rudimentary understanding of the system. One example is the fact forests have already stopped absorbing carbon (something all our climate goals depended on).

What I'm saying is that the 2070-2090 window will in reality probably end up starting in 2030 or 2040. Remember, we weren't supposed to exceed 1.5c for another 10-15 years, but we're already there. At the end of the day we're talking chimps attempting to understand a system many orders of magnitude more complex than we're capable of understanding anytime soon... and our entire civilization is structured around the thing causing its own destruction.

[–] Glasgow@lemmy.ml 3 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Like this

https://www.arcticdeathspiral.org/

[–] Chocrates@lemmy.world 1 points 5 days ago

Wow, thank you for this. It is so depressing but full of fantastic information.

[–] Chocrates@lemmy.world 1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Yeah, I keep telling people that Millennials trying to retire (lol), should expect and plan for the market to drastically change but I can't get a single person to take me seriously.

Even if the market keeps going up like the boomers had we aren't gonna be able to retire like them at all, if the economy crashes on top of it, are we all gonna be homeless?

[–] Maggoty@lemmy.world 2 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Well yeah, why do you think we're all buying prepper books and guns? Gotta get ready to be the old guy in the water wars.

[–] HowRu68@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

and our entire civilization is structured around the thing causing its own destruction.

Very well summarised.

Note: The title was just corrected. It's 50% of GDP not growth.

According to this report, 50% fall of WORLD GDP because climatic catastrophes means, no food, water, medicine,infrastructure, help, nothing. Society breaks dow , totally.

And you get famine, thirst, diseases, wars, and many millions or billions deaths.

Important note: it's just a report, an Important one though,if correct. These are (educated) predictions, but nonetheless, just that.