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Holding back China's chipmaking progress is a fool’s errand, says U.S. Commerce Secretary | Tom's Hardware
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this post was submitted on 23 Dec 2024
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It's pretty spot on. It takes years to get a fab up to speed, and they've been stealing US IP shipped over there for manufacturing for over a decade. They'll try to annex Taiwan, and the US will be fucked. Jokes on them though, because TSMC has remote self destructive capabilities for their operations.
China will not invade Taiwan. They might try to invade a country like the Philippines, almost crash the world economy but more than anything their own country in the process and realize Taiwan is completely out of reach.
China has terrible demographics, a real estate mark that is in free fall, high debt, is the target of tariffs in every major economy and a domestic market that can’t consume what they produce.
Economically they are fucked unless the US and EU throw them a life line and allow them to dump products in their market again… which is not going to happen no matter which party is in control. The best they can hope for at this point is a Japanese style lost decade. But I doubt they can manage even that outcome.
Bottom line is the CCP will do whatever is in the best interest of the CCP staying in control of China. Even if that decision is terrible for China itself.
If they are backed into a corner it doesn’t matter that Taiwan is out of reach. All that matters is that the CCP stays in control.
That is what makes this next ten years very dangerous.
TSMC won’t destroy itself. If the US destroys TSMC on its way out, that will crush the global economy.
Man, I love how people give no agency to companies like this. Mainly because it shows they're entirely ignorant of the state of the world outside of their very limited knowledge and incorrect beliefs about it.
You are saying tsmc agency is voluntarily blowing up all of taiwan assets?
If your comment ever starts with "are you saying", the answer is no.
And also
It's a no-win for them.
They lose the war and pull the trigger, and everyone from the janitor on up is prosecuted by the PRC as saboteurs.
They win the war and have blown up the factory? Goodbye #1 export product.
Its only value is as a hindrance to peaceful negotiation. The threat is actually more useful as a "we'll pull the plug if you abandon your defence commitments" rather than "we'll pull the plug when attacked". That bludgeon prevents Western powers from seeking a managed, Hong Kong/Macao sryle reunification strategy.
Or the US simply uses several Ohio-class submarines to glass the factories. Hooyah Navy. Hopefully take out as much of the PLA as possible along the way. Let them try ruling over a pile of dust and ash.
The US seeks to use Taiwan to threaten China and if it can’t it will destroy the island to hurt both the Chinese and the Taiwanese. This extremist viewpoint is similar to a bitter ex who kills his girlfriend to keep her from loving another man.
Wow, you're either not very smart, or are not aware of the state of the world.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machines-are-equipped-with-a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion
Thanks for sharing this link, and I wonder if you could be nicer in your replies in the future
This is extremely funny and cartoonish. No one would benefit from this. As I said, the whole world would suffer.
Also, TSMC exists to make money. The Chinese government has overseen the largest economic growth of this century and would change little about the company’s daily operations.
The people who want this outcome of TSMC being destroyed are not Chinese or Taiwanese, they’re American. Like I said, it would be the Americans ordering the destruction of TSMC during reunification, as it was likely their idea to create these self-destruct mechanisms in the first place. Some ally we Americans would be if on our way out we crippled Taiwanese industry and sabotaged the world economy.
What the taiwanese want is sovereignty.
The threat of blowing up TSMC if invaded helps with their sovereignty because it both avoids the Chinese attacking them and helps the Americans defend them.
Over the course of its history, the island of Taiwan has gone through multiple eras.
First it was an independent island with native peoples who had their own languages.
Then they were colonized by the Chinese and became part of China.
Then they were occupied by the Japanese.
Then the island became a safe haven for the losers of China’s civil war. Those losers are the foundation of Taiwan’s modern politics. Until about 30 years ago they claimed they were the actual rulers of China. Now they claim they’re a unique and independent nation.
Most importantly they were a military base of a foreign power (the United States) up until 1979. Now the US media is talking about supplying nuclear weapons to the Taiwanese separatist government. The USA is also engaging in trade war with China. The US and Saudi Arabia helped recruit, arm and train terrorists from China to fight in proxy wars in the Middle East. These terrorists have threatened to return to China to stage a revolt against the government.
It’s unsurprising that China wants Taiwan to become reunified with the mainland. Since day one they’ve been a security threat. Like Hong Kong, the only future for Taiwan is reunification. If the separatist government decides to reignite the civil war, there might not be an island of Taiwan in the future. They can lose gracefully or they can detonate the vest and destroy themselves and their relatives on the mainland. The people who lose will be the Chinese people and their trading partners around the world who benefit from their stability.
My main point is that none of this is happening in a vacuum. No matter how much we as foreigners are told that we’re ambassadors of freedom by propping up a lost cause government and helping to drive a wedge to split their country, all the rest of the world sees is how craven we are.
When the US had its civil war, the North and South reunified. This is how civil wars end. Taiwan is not exempt from the rules of history.
So had everywhere else. What are you on about?
Notice how you didn't even consider the possiblity of just china and Taiwan being separate countries. Which is how many civil wars end (the US civil war is not the only civil war). It is also the ending that causes less harm overall. The taiwanese don't die, and the Chinese don't "give in to separatists", because they are not separatists. You can't separate from a state you never belonged to. The taiwanese were never part of communist china.
To pretend the Taiwanese are not separatists is historically incorrect. As noted above, they only pivoted to calling themselves independent decades after the civil war. Before their claimed independence they claimed to be the actual rulers of China (to them the civil war was still ongoing). Only in the fantasy land of the Taiwanese can you claim to be the rulers of a nation and then decide you’re no longer part of that nation.
You do realize, don't you, that the majority of Taiwanese do not want reunification? Well, I mean, they want reunification with their party in power and don't want CCP-controlled reunification.
In one poll, 63% said they would personally fight if China tried to force reunification. In another poll, the VAST majority wanted to maintain the status quo. Some of those want to keep the status quo and decide later, some want to keep it forever, some want to keep it but start moving toward independence. In that poll, only around 2% want reunification now, and only 5% want full independence now. In another poll, 49% wanted full independence and 27% wanted status quo, while only 12% wanted reunification.
Well, not "crush", but I suppose the "AI" hype and that of cryptocurrencies will stop to think for 5 years or so.
I'm looking forward to this. Some incentive for developers to stop expecting faster machines every month is welcome.