this post was submitted on 01 Dec 2024
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It absolutely does. What happened to twitter could happen to a successor. The successor matters.
Sure, but as you cannot know the future, it's a bit tricky to pick a successor you want to support based on that, instead of absolutely right-now-essential things such as "Where people actually are".
It's also important to keep in mind how long Twitter's run was: It was originally founded 18 years ago. I'd be okay if every 10-15 years I have to get a new Twitter, tbh. I buy a new phone every 4-5 years, a new car every 15-20, I'm alright. It's cheap to go onto a new Twitter, I'm far less resistant to change with that.
That is to say: Sure, maaaybe (again, can't truly know) Mastodon is superior on a technical level. But not only is that absolutely not how social media operates, and second it really doesn't matter if a sucessor also goes down in 10+ years. People won't be able to care any less if a successor lasts that long, and considering how quickly Mastodon has turned into a semi-ghost-town once Bluesky got big, I kinda know what I'd put my money onto.
Of course all of this ignores a central problem with the entire category of services: They don't conduct conversations well, even stuff like Misskey or Mastodon.