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That's not true either. The polls I linked take into consideration votes that would be lost, and it's still a net +6.
For example, 79% of Jewish Americans voted for Harris. Or just shy of 4.6 million voters
25% considered Israel a major policy item. Or just shy of 1.15 million Harris voters.
Looking at how Jewish Americans views on a permanent ceasefire and conditioal military aid, a majority support it
52.5% support withholding military aid compared to 23% to disagree with that decision.
23% of the 1.15 Million that consider Israel a top issue leaves us with 230,000 Jewish Americans.
Even if we assume all of these Jewish Americans are Democrat, which we have no way of confirming one way or the other, let's compare that to the uncommitted movement. Total uncommitted in the Primary was 706,591 (Which may have been undercounted). On average, general turnout is twice that of primary turnout. Which would reflect over 1,400,000 uncommitted votes in the general as an estimate. Considering how widespread anti-genocide sentiment is, I would expect more than that. But it's not like we have any data, other than the current results.
Interesting data, but you also gotta factor in the AIPAC rat-fucking that would work overtime to overturn opinions not just amongst Jewish voters but by exploiting anti-"terrorist" sentiments in general from both parties.There's a lot of political machinery in place that's deeply embedded. Trump would also be piling on with his own campaigning to exploit that.
But we'll never know for certain i guess.
That's why the best way to counteract that as a campaign would be to message about conditional military aid for a permanent ceasefire just before voting begins. That way AIPAC doesn't have time to counter with attack ads. For context, it took AIPAC 25 million and 8 months to unseat 2 members of The Squad for being anti-genocide. Less people would hear about the pivot since it would have happened so late, but it's still enough time to galvanize grassroots support and convince others to go out of their way to vote.
That's fair, would have been impressive to see that.