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I need to hold you to some key points, here:
There is fundamentally ZERO data supporting a Biden victory this November. Think about that.
One would agree that while these are not snapshots in time and October surprises can occur, it's certainly not a GOOD sign that Biden is.
For example, we would consider it to be a pretty good sign if Biden was leading in national polling 80% to Trump 20%, correct? Now obviously this doesn't mean something can't change between now and November, but it would certainly correlate with good prospects - agreed?
Now reflect on that fact that national aggregate polling of all reputable national surveys show Biden trails his 2020 performance at the same time By nearly 10%... When you consider 2020 was decided on the margins in battleground states by ~40,000 voters, this is a terrible sign. Especially when specific polling on black and hispanic and swing-voters in these specific battleground states ALSO bodes worse for Biden this time around.
Many people did not vote for Biden; hell in Florida, they didn't even hold the Primaries it went by default to Biden. An uncontested primaries isn't exactly proof people will be upset -- especially when polling data is already telling us the vast majority of the electorate is unhappy with voting for Joe Biden. And call me crazy but I'm not too worried about the dyed-in-the-wool Democrat from California upset that we change from Biden. I'm pretty sure they'll vote for anyone else the Democrats appoint.
Joe Biden already is our Sarah Palin. You're struggling to find any conceivable data to support your assertions and you know it.
Californians don’t matter here. Voters in swing states like Pennsylvania do. Ohioans are less likely to vote for Gavin Newsom over Biden. If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.
Look, I despise Biden since he ignored all his advisors and set a disastrous Gaza policy, and want anyone but him. He was one of the worst candidates of 2020 but since he was “the most electable” we were told to shut up and fall in line. His electability has faltered. But it’s almost July, the window of time to replace him and win already closed. I’m not going to keep arguing, we’ll agree to disagree.
Exactly!! That's precisely my point! You tried to claim millions of people voted for Biden in the primaries when that doesn't translate to battleground swing-state voters.
Biden is the guaranteed loss based on all available data we have, relative to his performance in 2020. Those battleground swing voters? Biden is ALREADY losing them. Besides, there's a non-zero chance that Joe Biden could suffer an emergency health crisis after the convention... And then we're REALLY fucked because at best we default to Harris who polls worse than everyone.
Yes, he absolutely can and I'm not the only one who believes it. If you don't think there wouldn't be a media frenzy over a sudden new face on the scene you'd be crazy. Whitmer, Newsom, or hey -- how about Josh Shapiro who actually outperformed Biden himself in Pennsylvania...? If that's really your concern, after all.
The window of time closes after the Convention. After that, we're stuck.
I repeat: Biden is performing significantly worse in every single data-point compared to his 2020 run where he eeked a win by sliver. If he was up 20 points I wouldn't even be saying a word. But after that debate performance seen by 50 million people? Every indicator for the election is only going to get worse for Biden.