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He's the Republican nominee. What do you mean by letting "the media and talking heads convince you of anything?" Based on the previous two presidential elections, he's got a 50/50 shot which says a lot about his opponent.
If polling aggregate predictions means anything, then he actually has a higher chance of winning than losing.
Source 1
Source 2
In what world does the number of candidates have anything to do with hundred of millions of peoples independent votes.
This is just bad stats
The world where out of the 400 RNC candidates filed through the FEC, Trump was the one that people have been voting for in the primaries by a landslide.
There were 161 Million total registered voters in 2022, and 335 Million total USA Population, so even if tens of millions of people, a comparatively small fraction, vote for Donald Trump then he can very easily win this election.
In this world. He already won one election and came very close to winning the second back in 2020. Combine that with yet another weak-ass Dem candidate being the only other option and you have a recipe where it's entirely possible for him to win again.
You’re comparing apples to oranges here. The circumstances have changed since 2020 and to ignore 4 years of hearings, charges, additional threats (much less vague now) and libertarian distain for trump is significantly different from what it was when he ran in 2016, and when he had that momentum in 2020 (Covid year, don’t forget)
Donald Trump is going to bite the curb this election and I’ll bet you a bunch of people still vote for RFK.
And now he’s been charged with 30+ felonies.
#LockHimUp
Yeah this sounds a lot like pollsters claiming that Clinton had a 99% chance of winning in 2016.
Biden seems to be going out of his way to alienate progressive voters and conservative voters will never vote for him. The 'fence sitters' who don't pay attention to politics will simply see inflation and high prices and blame whomever is currently holding office due to all the conditioning and rhetoric they hear regarding it.
Any election should see a guy like Trump defeated in a landslide, but that's not the reality we live in and the guy running against him is doing such a poor job that Trump might actually win again.
I agree with your final paragraph. He isn’t a perfect candidate.
But I don’t think there will ever be a perfect candidate and when they’re running against a literal fascist dictator, I know who I will vote for. I’ve said this before but a primarily 2-party system is dangerously naïve. Simplifying the insanely complex reality that is the US into 2 options is stupid. Not to mention how much it alienates minorities (of all types not just race, religion, sex)
How are we to represent down to the minority level via a popular-vote. It doesn’t make sense to me.