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I appreciate you taking the time to do the math. It was early enough to where I wouldn't trust my caffeine deficient mind to do. Kudos.
You and I agree on your final point completely, I just simply believe in non institutional learning. (where applicable, of course)
Education does lead to better pay, certainly. The numbers are somewhat more complicated when it comes to the arithmetic behind it. This is where I find nothing but crippling faults with the American education machine.
An average cost of instate education for a masters is (this is low) 45k. If repaid at 6% apr in 3-5 years were looking at roughly 4500-7k in interest. Let's call it 50k total deficit. During this same time (3 years education+3 years repayment) let's assume our highschooler is working and investing his earnings in a moderate 6-10% fund. In 6 years how close are they? Which is closer to home ownership (it's a joke. neither! but we can dream.)
Without question at a certain point the masters degree will pay off and assuming the same strategy - will overtake the highschool graduate in assets.. but the time investment is far more significant than one would anticipate. The actual calculations are very complex as a lot more goes into each of these scenarios- but it does illustrate some of the flaws with assigning x wage vs y wage. In the end I am not specifically speaking against all higher education but speaking for an understanding that it isn't the only path to take.