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So you're saying that the biggest factor in people leaving religion is people leaving religion?
Less people leaving and more too many people not really signing on in the first place, at least not beyond possibly being forced to attend as kids. Combine that with the baby boomers being an unusually large generation (hence the name) and in the process of dying off, and...
Short version - anything even kinda popular among boomers that isn't ubiquitous among the following generations is going to decline due to the sheer number of boomers and religion is experiencing a genuine decline in rate of uptake in addition to that effect.
In other words, Trump isn't causing people to leave religion so much much as people aren't really leaving religion so much as not really joining up in earnest while the existing flock slowly dies off.