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If trump underperforms as much as Biden did, he'd still win by more than he did in 2020...
But assuming Florida was fraudulent in 2020, and nothing was done...
What's changed?
Note:
You got a source for republicans committing large scale fraud in Florida? All I'm seeing is a small amount of idiots that voted twice and obviously got caught...
Which isn't enough to make up for the ~370,000 votes Biden lost by.
A lot actually. 2020 and 2024 are not the same political climate. For starters, the 2020 election was pre-insurrection. Since then, Jacksonville voters elected a democrat as their mayor. Abortion and recreational marijuana are going to be on the ballot as a result of citizens organizing; not their elected officials representing them.
Some people in FL are starting to wake up. It wasn’t so long ago that FL voted blue in the Presidential elections.
Either way, Biden didn’t need FL to win in 2020; as he displayed in the previous election. This would explain why no money was spent on any large scale investigation into the fraud. The outcome would have remained the same.
I’m not going to link every unrelated article that comes back after a search for “2020 FL voter fraud.” There’s a ton of projection coming from Tallahassee though.
You say that, But it's went from +3 Biden, to +7 trump in those 4 years...
And Jacksonville mayor?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Jacksonville_mayoral_election#Results
Dems did win the runoff by about 9k votes, but...
A city going barely blue in no way makes up for statewide polling.
Biden needs to be shoring up support in the States he barely won that got him into the White House last time, not taking them for granted and attacking Florida in 2024.
Gotta be careful with polling results. By necessity they're weighted to match the most recent turn out demographics. Which is usually just a bit of an error range. With issues like abortion and weed, the younger vote changes a lot more than the polling algorithm. So the error bars are huge, and adjustments to add accuracy are most likely to just wrong. It's one of the two major reasons for upsets at the ballot box. The other being the Bradley effect, which could also be very much in play the other direction.
Consider that the 7% lead Trump has right now is the average from two polls with less than a 4% error, that were 5% apart from each other. So at least one of them is just blatantly wrong, and really the odds are it's both.