this post was submitted on 22 Sep 2023
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From what you say I can approximate how it will go. First perpetual in-dev federation, then once they get enough people, they will say "not enough interest in federation" and stop development or pull the plug completely.
Except federation is already functional with 3rd party implementations. Sure it's possible they would choose to diverge in the official implementation in a closed branch, but that would not stop the rest of the clients from working. It's like if the biggest Mastodon instance went proprietary and shut down federation, the people who care would leave.
The main things they're working on are moderation tools suitable for federation as well as scaling