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After all of This Time Searching for Aliens, is it The Zoo Hypothesis or Nothing?
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this post was submitted on 08 Jan 2024
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Astronomy
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FTA:
"Either extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) are incredibly rare (or non-existent), or they are deliberately avoiding contact with us (aka. the “Zoo Hypothesis“)."
There is a 3rd possibility - it may not be deliberate.
Our position in the Milky Way is really out on the ass-end of it. We are nowhere near galactic central. If our current understanding of slower than light travel is correct, it just may not be possible for other civilizations to reach us.
When it comes to communications, and our radio sweeps of the galaxy turning up nothing, well, we're assuming any advanced civilization is still using radio transmissions.
Look at our recent experiment with laser based communication:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/world/nasa-space-laser-cat-video-scn/index.html
100 or so years after radio communication was widespread, we have the technology to eliminate it. There may be other methods orders of magnitude beyond that. We could be awash in alien communication streams we just can't percieve because ours are too primitive.
There are also hundreds of other theories that can potentially explain it. Like, 100 years really isn't a long time on cosmic scales. Maybe we're late to the party and intelligent life wiped itself out already. Maybe we're early, and we will wipe ourselves out before a new intelligence even figures out where the copy paper is.
For as big as space is, time is bigger.
We don't want to be near the galactic center, there's too much radiation. A quiet spot out on one of the arms away from supernovae and active objects is a much better place for life to evolve.
At this point our own radio is even too advanced for an alien civilization to detect. An interesting thing about radio is that aside from a few lingering powerful analog signals (AM/FM radio, active radar) our modern spread-spectrum radio is hard to distinguish from background noise. It's an interesting consequence of information theory, as bandwidth and noise tolerance grow, if you aren't looking for a signal it becomes almost invisible. We also do a lot with very little power now due to these amazing encoding methods, when I was a kid and the analog cell phone was novel we would have outright said that a phone could never communicate directly with satellites. Not enough power or antenna in your pocket. Yet here we are.
So any civilization that develops radio is only likely to send out a short burst of detectable radio before disappearing within 100 years, even without switching to an alternate technology. This makes radio an almost impossible thing to search for in a vast galaxy where time can separate us even more than space.