Experts [โฆ] have updated 2024 YR4โs chance of impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 from 1.7% as of late February to 3.8% based on the Webb data and observations from ground-based telescopes.
this post was submitted on 05 Apr 2025
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Me before reading those stats: ๐ฏ
Me after reading those stats: ๐ฎ
Yeah 3.8% is a huge chance in asteroid collision terms. Exciting stuff.
That would be so cool!
That's what you say now, but wait until all the Moon Hornets come out.
Like an angry space pinata
Can't wait to see it. Space Hornets would not surprise me in 2025 honestly
That would be even more cool. Terrifying, yes, but also cool.
I donโt even have that one on my 2025 bingo card.
Have you read Seveneves?
No, but I know about elevenses.
Until the part where they shelter on the moon. Then I somehow lost interest.
Anyways, was an interesting read. I doubt 70 tons hitting the moon would do much to earth though. Maybe we get nice shooting stars?
So realistically, what would happen if there was a collision like this?
It's a pretty significant hit, but not enough to meaningfully change the moon's orbit, so no long term impacts from that. Maybe a pretty meteor shower from the material ejected? Probably not enough material to cause a significant amount of surface heating.
until it fucks with the world's tidal patterns
Kick his ass, little buddy
Don't look up
The way things are going that may be the preferred scenario.
I made a calculation a few weeks ago with the data available at the time, which put the odds at 1.94%. That same calculation now gives 3.7%, so I guess I did a pretty good job.
Fingers crossed it ends up impacting, that would be quite the sight to behold.
I once had a dream I was swimming in a river, and when I looked up at the night sky I saw something impact the Moon and shatter it, sending chunks down to Earth's surface.
Time to get that doomsday hype train rolling again for 2024 YR4! I don't even know how large an object would need to be in order to do something like that, probably larger than this is. I guess it'll just have to remain a dream, sigh.
Even if the moon was shattered, most of the pieces would probably just continue in their orbit.
Thank you for your service Mr moon ๐ซก๐
Someone please ask Nasa to stop, we need our moon!
Is it big enough to cause any big debris to fall on Earth?