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Image is of Gazans breaking their fast with the Iftar meal during the ongoing Ramadan.

Due to a request by @miz@hexbear.net, this thread's COTW is Qatar.


The ceasefire deal broke down early last week after Israel unilaterally changed the terms of the agreement and then blamed Hamas for not meeting them. Violence against civilians has rapidly accelerated to pre-ceasefire levels, with many hundreds dead already, aid once again cut off, and Israeli soldiers once again entering and occupying the attritional labyrinth that is Gaza.

I'm not yet in a position to make any solid predictions or analysis, as the geopolitical situation in and around Israel has changed fairly substantially over the last 6 months; in some ways benefiting Israel, and in other ways not. We know for sure how Hamas and Ansarallah are reacting (thankfully, with open hostility to both Israel and the United States), but the state of Hezbollah has been a giant question mark for months now, and precisely what Iran plans to do (beyond the usual level of supplying weaponry and intelligence to all the allies it can) is unknown. Syria will be almost certainly be a big wildcard, and we'll have to see if the compradors in Damascus can weather the storm.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] thelastaxolotl@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (5 children)

Reporter: Are you worried about stagflation?

Trump: I haven’t heard that term in years. I don’t know anything about it.. this country is going to boom. We’re going to have boomtown. We’re going to boom

its going to boom nerds

explosionamerikkkaexplosion

[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

trump can have 5 big booms as a treat

explosion explosion explosion explosion explosion

[–] Sebrof@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

When he says it he gets to be president, but when I say it I get a knock from the FBI angery

[–] RomCom1989@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

boomtown

That's what they'll call the hoovervilles of the 21st century

[–] Parsani@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

Costco guys are in control

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[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

Damn, it took almost dying from a lynch mob of rabid Zionists for him to be properly credited:
https://xcancel.com/MayadeenEnglish/status/1906129001405399463

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has apologized for excluding Palestinian co-director Hamdan Ballal’s name in its response to the Israeli settler attack and his subsequent detainment.

Following global outcry from the film industry, including 690 Academy members, among them Mark Ruffalo, Riz Ahmed, Ava DuVernay, and Alfonso Cuaron, the Academy issued a follow-up letter on Friday acknowledging its omission.

“We regret that we failed to directly acknowledge Mr. Ballal and the film by name,” read the statement from Academy CEO Bill Kramer and President Janet Yang, adding that the Academy “condemns violence of this kind anywhere in the world” and opposes the suppression of free speech "under any circumstances."

[–] trompete@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

German Greens want to force people of all ages to serve the state in a new Freedom Service™. Either military or some community service.

"It is time to ask the question: What can you do for you country?", Schulze said to Deutsche Presse-Agentur. The threats are growing.

"In order make our society more robust, to defend our freedom, and to strengthen cooperation, we need everybody. The Freedom Service is a collective project for Germany, by all and for all. Through the Freedom Service, we will to bring together generations and milieus, strengthen our society, and defend what is important to us."

I'm not making this up btw.

They're no longer in government of course, that's just their contribution to the debate about re-introducing conscription.

[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

Something I really don't like about conscription (besides the "teach young people to kill for capital" thing) is how condescendingly the victims of conscription is addressed by the politicians aged 50+ supporting it.

You learn a lot of valuable skills, you get in shape, you learn the values of teamwork and discipline, it is so good for social cohesion. Actually it is for your own best but you are all too immature and childish to understand so we, the responsible adults, need to use the coercive apparatus of the state to force you into military service if you refuse.

If it is so good, why not use it for everyone, including people our own age? Don't be absurd.

The idea of conscription works very well as an extension of reactionary old and middle-aged people's vicious hatred against young people.

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[–] edge@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Apparently in El Salvador Nayib Bukele did the exact same thing that got Evo Morales ousted: had the Supreme Court declare that term limits don't apply and got re-elected despite the constitution.

Weird how the US didn't coup him thonk. It's almost as if term limits exist solely to keep leftists from holding power for too long.

[–] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

The US is on and off with him. They didn’t really like him all the way back to the first Trump administration but his recent action of taking in migrants has put him in their good graces again.

[–] miz@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

term limits exist solely to keep leftists from holding power for too long

Consider term limits. The US Constitution was amended to enforce term limits in direct response to FDR’s popular 12-year presidency (he died in office, going on for 16). As a policy, it is self-evidently quite anti-democratic (robbing the people of a choice), but nevertheless it has been conceptually naturalized to the extent that the 2019 coup against Evo Morales was premised explicitly on the idea that repeated popular electoral victories constituted a form of dictatorship. If rotation was important to avoid corruption or complacency, corporations and supreme courts would institute term limits too. Term limits ensure that in the miraculous scenario that a scrupulous, charismatic, and intelligent individual becomes a rebellious political executive, they won’t be in power long enough to meaningfully challenge the entrenched power of corporate vehicles manned by CEOs with decades of experience. Wolfgang Schäuble, a powerful advocate of austerity policy in Europe, succinctly summarized the extent to which electoral democracy is subordinate: “Elections cannot be allowed to change economic policy.” One Party States and Democratic Centralism are not the result of lack of sophistication or cronyism, they are a proven bulwark that acknowledges that political power will often need to be exerted against the will of Capital, and so the wielders of said power must necessarily undergo a much more serious vetting process than a popularity contest.

from https://redsails.org/why-marxism/

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[–] CthulhusIntern@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

In my experience, those who say Israel and Palestine are both bad tend to really fucking hate Palestine but not mind Israel all that much.

[–] sewer_rat_420@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

Of course, because the mere expression of "both sides" is erasing that one side is an oppressor

[–] miz@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

Anti-genocide activists exposed by pro-"Israel" groups using facial recognition tech | The Cradle

Washington has revoked hundreds of student visas in recent weeks as part of a crackdown on foreign university students who oppose the mass killing of Palestinians by Israel

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (3 children)

The T-4 airbase in Syria, which was intended for use by the Turkish Armed Forces, has been rendered unusable after Israeli airstrikes targeted the facility to prevent Turkey from utilizing it.

  • Telegram
[–] Monk3brain3@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Imagine thinking you can be allies or work with fucking Israel. Even the US is completely compromised the the fucking Zionazi scum. They are completely hollowing it out which is good for the world but really bad for average Americans.

I can't wait for the US to invade Canada to supply Israel with fresh water when climate change really ramps up

[–] kittin@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Israel attacks Turkey

Turkey invokes article 4

USA bombs itself for supporting Israel

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

jdpon don and ml-islamist watermelon seller strikes again

[–] ziggurter@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

If only rules not for-thee-not-me. SMDH.

[–] Frank@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

Skirmishes in the middle east between the US Air Force and the US Navy. Northrup Grumman stocks up 15 points

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Here's some satellite imagery of both the strike on the Palmyra and T4 airbases. Yellow pins are airstrikes from the second wave, light blue from the first wave.

Runways, taxiways, aircraft hangars and parking, along with the entrance/exit gates and storage buildings were destroyed, so it's unusable for now. Turkey cannot fly in and use it in it's current state. But it can be repaired if the will to do so is there.

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[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)
[–] Jabril@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Highly recommend the documentary about the Bougainville revolution called "Coconut Revolution"

They were blockaded for like 7 years and a filmmaker snuck in by boat to shoot it.

It shows how they started the revolution with literal sticks and stones against helicopters, fully automatic weapons, and explosives.

They taught themselves engineering via old books left at the mine they destroyed and used scrap to created hydroelectric dams to power their villages, and to convert cars to run on coconut oil

[–] edge@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Apparently Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa is in Florida to beg for US troops to be sent to Ecuador. Ostensibly to help in their “drug war”, but conveniently only two weeks before the runoff of their presidential election where Noboa was only 0.17pp above the center-left Correist candidate in the first round and is currently polling 7pp below her in the runoff.

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Noboa spends more time in the USA partying than in his own country, but what did they expect from a failson that uses child slave labor. He also somehow had a fight with his far-right zionist VP, and refused to give her the presidency during the elections period.

[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago
[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (6 children)

White House aide Peter Navarro today: Trump's tariffs will raise $600 billion per year, or $6 trillion over a 10 year period

Seems to reflect our reporting that Trump wants to go absolutely enormous on the tariffs, regardless of short-term economic consequences

[–] kittin@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

So effectively a consumption tax to shift the tax burden further away from the rich

[–] grendahlgrendahlgen@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

It's not gonna raise shit if imports plummet. Are they just assuming that every importer will just choose to pay up?

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[–] deathtoreddit@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)
[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

French court finds far-right leader Marine Le Pen guilty in embezzlement case - NPR

PARIS — A French court found Marine Le Pen guilty on Monday in an embezzlement case but didn't immediately say what her sentence might be and how it might impact the far-right leader's political future.

Le Pen, sitting in the front row in the Paris court, showed no immediate reaction as the chief judge declared her guilty. She later repeatedly nodded her head in disagreement as the judge went into greater detail, saying Le Pen's party had illegally used European Parliament money for its own benefit. "Incredible," she whispered at one point.

The judge also handed down guilty verdicts to eight other current or former members of her party who, like her, previously served as European Parliament lawmakers. Le Pen and her co-defendants face up to 10 years in prison. They can appeal, which would lead to another trial.

The biggest concern for Le Pen is that the court may declare her ineligible to run for office "with immediate effect" — even if she appeals. That could prevent her from running for president in 2027. She has described such scenario as a "political death." The verdict was shaping up as a resounding defeat for Le Pen and her party. As well as finding her and eight other former European lawmakers guilty of embezzling public funds, the court also handed down guilty verdicts to 12 other people who served as parliamentary aides for Le Pen and what is now the National Rally party, formerly the National Front.

The chief judge, who read the ruling delivered by her and two other justices, said Le Pen had been at the heart of "a system" that her party used to siphon off EU parliament money. The judge said Le Pen and other co-defendants didn't enrich themselves personally. But the ruling described the embezzlement as "a democratic bypass" that deceived the parliament and voters.

Le Pen and 24 other officials from the National Rally were accused of having used money intended for European Union parliamentary aides to pay staff who worked for the party between 2004 and 2016, in violation of the 27-nation bloc's regulations. Le Pen and her co-defendants denied wrongdoing.

Le Pen, 56, was runner-up to President Emmanuel Macron in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, and her party's electoral support has grown in recent years. During the nine-week trial that took place in late 2024, she argued that ineligibility "would have the effect of depriving me of being a presidential candidate" and disenfranchise her supporters.

"There are 11 million people who voted for the movement I represent. So tomorrow, potentially, millions and millions of French people would see themselves deprived of their candidate in the election," she told the panel of three judges. If Le Pen cannot run in 2027, her seeming natural successor would be Jordan Bardella, Le Pen's 29-year-old protégé who succeeded her at the helm of the party in 2021.

Le Pen denied accusations she was at the head of the system meant to siphon off EU parliament money to benefit her party, which she led from 2011 to 2021. She argued instead that it was acceptable to adapt the work of the aides paid by the European Parliament to the needs of the lawmakers, including some political work related to the party.

Hearings showed that some EU money was used to pay for Le Pen's bodyguard — who was once her father's bodyguard — as well as her personal assistant. Prosecutors requested a two-year prison sentence and a five-year period of ineligibility for Le Pen. Le Pen said she felt they were "only interested" in preventing her from running for president.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

US airstrikes continue on Yemen for the 16th night in a row, with multiple airstrikes targeting Sana'a Governorate.

Quite a few more strikes reported in Sana'a Governorate.

Al-Mayadeen reports more strikes in Sana'a Governorate.

Lots of bad information circling around. The pictures of the "USS Harry Truman sinking" that are circulating on social media are six years old and of a different ship. Claims that the US Navy's E-2 Hawkeye AWACS aircraft has been shot down are also highly unlikely, nothing in Yemen's surface to air missile arsenal has the range to hit US assets in the rear like that, and with active SEAD operations going on from EA-18G Growlers, Ansarallah haven't shot down an MQ-9 Reaper drone over the past 16 days, yet alone a target as far away from the frontlines as an AWACS aircraft. They could try with some Jerry rigged anti radiation 'Hormuz' missiles to home in on the massive radome on the E-2, but such an attack is highly unlikely to succeed.

Al Masirah TV twitter

Xcancel mirror

The Yemeni Armed Forces have announced two operations in two separate statements:

Cruise missile, naval and aerial drones launched at US Navy warships. No Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles. A Zulfiqar/Rezvan ballistic missile was also launched at Israel, a ballistic missile with a conventional ballistic flight path, no Palestine-2 missiles launched. Debris from the missile and an Israeli Arrow 3 interceptor landed in Israel.

Israeli news site N12 revealed that the US operated THAAD air defence system has intercepted 6 Yemeni missiles already. If anyone is wondering why this is, it's because Israel don't really have a terminal phase intercept system for MaRV (Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle) capable ballistic missiles. THAAD is the only system that fits the bill and can plug the gaps. Arrow 3 is a midcourse interception system, it does not intercept ballistic missiles in the terminal stage of flight. So if Yemeni ballistic missiles bypass Arrow 3, and they are MaRV capable missiles, Israeli air defence systems are not adequate. I'll explain below:

Arrow 2 has a maximum flight ceiling/altitude of 50km, and a range of 100km, and uses a fragmentation warhead, not a kinetic one. David's Sling has a longer range up to 300km and a kinetic warhead, but a flight ceiling of only 15km, allowing for only last second interceptions. These flight ceilings are all problems when intercepting MaRV capable missiles that can perform glide phases within the earth's atmosphere, gliding above or near the limit their flight ceilings in the terminal phase. A MaRV could perform two glide phases, first one above Arrow-2 and one above David's Sling. So THAAD is brought in to plug the gap. THAAD can engage targets at altitudes between 40-150km, and at ranges up to 200km. So MaRVs cannot glide above the engagement ceiling of THAAD. The way to defeat THAAD would be to perform an extremely long glide phase below 40km under the engagement envelope of THAAD, but that puts the MaRV firmly within the engagement envelope of Arrow-2. Arrow 2s minimum altitude is 8km, so gliding under that would put the MaRV firmly within the engagement envelope of David's Sling. Also, with thicker atmosphere/air at lower altitudes, long glide phases become increasingly difficult as drag increases.

[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)
[–] qcop@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

I wonder who they'll put as frontrunner for the 2027 if this is not overruled. Bardella is out of the question the guy was already crumbling on live tv during the European elections.

Maybe Marion will come back home? Who knows

In any case RIPBOZO

[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I'm thinking she tries to appeal this long enough for her to be able to run.

[–] qcop@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago

It might be hard as the sentence is applied immediately even if she appeals and appealing it does not stop the sentencing. So she would need to appeal and win it before 2027. From what I’ve read about the case it seems highly unlikely she wins in appeal as there is strong evidence against her and her party, but we’ll see.

[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

I'm thinking she tries to appeal this and the trial goes on long enough for her to be able to run.

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