The only polls that matter are ones where physical votes are cast. Vote!
this post was submitted on 25 Aug 2024
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For the election itself, yes. But we’re likely to have major issues after the election if most of Trump’s supporters don’t believe he lost, and polls like this are critical for getting them to accept that.
They're not gonna accept it regardless. We wouldn't be in this position if MAGA cared for facts.
There are some who won’t accept it regardless, and some who will be swayed by what they think everyone else is thinking.
Edit: Also, a lot of the decisions will be made by Republican officeholders who may be happy to play along with the die-hard MAGA faction as long as it doesn’t threaten their own re-election chances, but could get cold feet if Harris polls too high in their own states.
That's an important observation. A big part of the "authoritarian follower" personality is a desire to be "normal", to be like everyone else. If they think everyone just accepts Harris won they may not be happy about it but they'll be more likely to accept it.
I was hanging out with a group of conservative dudes last night. They are convinced that Trump is going to win and the Democrats are going to refuse to certify the election, which will result in a civil war.
I really hope that Harris beats his ass so badly that her victory is undeniable. Even then, I'm worried they'll see that as further proof that the election was stolen. Having media bubbles is incredibly dangerous to our democracy.
I just don't understand the projection. Trump is the one that didn't ensure peaceful transition. The first in history. Trump is the one that staged an attempted coup.
I went on a deep dive researching delusions, though, and I suppose calling people out in the throes of one isn't usually fruitful.
I just don't understand the projection.
I don't get it either, but it is what the P stands for in GOP.
I thought the P stood for "Potty-mouth".
throes*
Ooo thank you, I'll edit
They'll believe anything that's convenient for them to believe.
Maybe not. The GOP is losing enthusiasm. They'll still vote for Trump, but it takes more than that to be willing to do violence in the man's name.
Are there really people that think "She's doing so well on the polls! I guess I don't need to vote"? I feel like if you're paying any attention to polls, you're the kind of person who's already going to vote. The kind of people you need to reach are ones that don't care about politics.
As usual, national polls mean nothing since we don't have national elections.
But let's see where it stands in the states that count, all of these numbers are from before the DNC and Kennedy dropping out, so we'll need a re-run in a week or two. I'm also adding some states people have been talking about.
Arizona: Toss up. Tie, Trump +1 +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Harris +6, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +8, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Texas: Trump +5, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
Georgia: Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Florida: Trump +5, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
North Carolina: Toss up. Tie, Harris +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Pennsylvania: Toss up. Harris +1, +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +5, +7, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Huge shifts in Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin which, under Biden, were a loss to Trump and shortly before the official shift were still barely Trump.
Trump is up in Texas, but only +5 or +6 which is consistent with the +6 win in 2020 and +9 in 2016.
Florida and Georgia are not the toss up states people are making them out to be.
The Muslim Pro-Gaza vote has had 0 impact in Michigan. Still Harris' race to lose there.
Overall, this is the best showing for the Democrats so far this year, let's plot it on the map:
Of the three toss up states, a win in either PA or NC puts Harris over the top. Arizona does not. She's 2 short if she gets AZ but not PA or NC.
Trump needs BOTH PA and NC to hit exactly 270. PA + AZ he's at 265. NC + AZ he's at 262.
This is really the first time in months that the electoral math has been going away from Trump.
As a North Carolinian I have to say it feels really bad knowing your state is actually blue, but it's gerrymandered so hard that it's red and that it will likely stay that way. I will do my best to make it blue again.
I'm terrified of Mark Robinson winning the governor race.
Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the presidential election.
No - they have other methods of voter supression for that
...Which do directly relate to being gerrymandered.
Oh no I mean shitty practices like shutting down polling stations, throwing people off voter rolls, etc.
I'm agreeing with you
What a wonderful "democracy". The candidate with +7 is still a maybe to win.
The State polls change about a week after the national polls. Give them time to catch up.
I really like those numbers! Last time I looked at a polling map, it was Trump needing to win just one battleground state. Now it looks like Harris is in that seat.
As a great example of your point, my vote for Harris-Walz will be one of an overwhelming majority in my state. But that majority we contribute doesn’t really count past that 50%. MY state is predictable, just like the popular vote seems to be trending g bluer again, but what happens in Pennsylvania has so much more impact.
Yeah, there was a point where Biden needed PA, MI and WI and was behind in all three. Losing any one was enough to lose the election. That was just before he dropped out.
Harris is up in MI and WI and PA is a tossup.
It looks like they don’t even care enough to poll in my state. At 538.com, the last listed survey still puts Biden in the lead by 18-21 points. I wonder if that will change with Harris, LoL
Quite a few states are just a given they're going to go one way or another so there's no point spending money on polling there.
My state is the same, nothing in a month:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/oregon/
High quality post.☝️
Norh Carolina is the state I'll be watching most closely.
NC and PA should both be closing and reporting at the same time, but PA has a higher population, so should take longer to get the counts.
Actually, by population, PA is the 5th largest state, behind California, Texas, Florida and New York. North Carolina is #9.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
We can infer some things from the national poll though - of course this is all fuzzy statistics but they're always saying something like a +5 for dems in the national polling is roughly equal to an electoral victory.
The problem is if the poll over or under represents California or New York the numbers might not actually mean much.
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Let's make it double digits. Maybe he will cry on national camera.
It really needs to be indisputable because otherwise we could get a repeat of w bush having the Supreme Court hand the victory over to him.
You know they're ready and waiting to do a repeat performance of Bush v Gore. It doesn't even need to be close, just take long enough to finish the count (see: PA being notoriously slow and probably quite important this time) that the Court has time to invent a decision.
Actual article link instead of the AMP slop in the post: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4846433-harris-leading-trump-by-7-points-poll/
It’s surprising that Trump still has the support he does.
The guy is too old and he can’t form a coherent sentence.
Pokémon Go to jail!
Make it 10! Make it 15! We don't stop until Harris is sworn in!
How much are points worth?
The headmaster always spoils the result by giving extra points to Gryffondor
We play one point per point.
Can Donald Trump count that high?
Yes. He has that many fingers. I'll feel better when he as to take his shoes off to count that high.
He probably needs help tying his shoes when he eventually gets them back on
I'm not sure he can see his feet.
Like seeing that 50% five more points and it'll be a rout.
Moar.
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