It's time to see if the polls are right.
Previously: the voting megathread
Exit polls!
this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2024
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Here's the seat by seat exit poll predictions: https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-what-is-the-forecast-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180
Truss is out! Defeated by Labour candidate Terry Jermy by only 630 votes.
The fact it was even close is ridiculous. She's the most terrible MP and PM we've ever had and yet she got a large number of people to vote for her.
There's something in the water over there.
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Aaaand majority!
You just love to see it
Labour 5 for 5 so far! I'm no statistician but if this trend continues...
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I'm watching the ITV feed on YouTube. Dunno what other people actually from the UK would recommend because I don't really know the British media landscape.
They're currently discussing the issue of Scottish independence. I must say, I find it very frustrating, including from Nicola Sturgeon. As a complete outsider, it would seem to me the number 1 reason in favour of a second referendum is very simple: "you'll not be allowed back into the EU if you secede from the UK" was a major campaign point during the first referendum. And then 2 years later England voted to leave the EU anyway. How is Sturgeon not bringing this up?
I’m watching the ITV feed on YouTube. Dunno what other people actually from the UK would recommend because I don’t really know the British media landscape.
ITV will be just fine. The Beeb's coverage is usually pretty definitive.
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They bring that up regularly, but it's a false equivalence. At the time of the independence vote it was absolutely true to claim that voting No was true best way to stay in the EU. There was no expectation, none, from anyone that Brexit was on the way. So, at the time, if Europe was the issue then voting to stay in the UK was the logical choice to make.
As for now - well, Swinney (and before him Sturgeon herself) was talking in terms of winning a majority of seats being a mandate for opening independence talks. That's clearly nonsense, since a majority of seats is possible with a fairly small plurality of votes. And, it's looking like it's a moot point anyway, since the SNP seems to have taken a right good kicking this time round.
So Sturgeon is probably not bringing this up tonight because she'd look ridiculous to do so given the (apparent) results in Scotland tonight. If this was a referendum on independence as she and Swinney have suggested, then the result would appear to be a solid No.
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I do love the trend of Returning Officers wearing silly hats.
Carol Vorderman is completely plastered on the C4 programme lol
There are some very close run seats out there, how close do they have to be to do a recount?
A recount is called if one of the sides requires one. Obviously if you only had a difference of 10 votes, it'd be daft not to demand recount, but technically it only happens if a candidate requests one.
Remember the votes are technically recounted already. They are counted three times, by three separate people, who don't know what the other two people have found as results, so they cannot be influenced by their number. If all three people get the same answer, the count is probably correct, discounting incredibly bad luck, which is statistically unlikely.
If a recount is requested then three new people perform the task just to discount the possibility of collusion.
Toot-toot, moog got the boot!
I figure satire articles probably aren't allowed in the general community, but hopefully it's ok in the megathread? This was brilliant.
https://theshovel.com.au/2024/07/05/australia-loses-shortest-time-to-5-pms-ashes/
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