this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2024
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UK Politics

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This is opinion. So read it as such. But consider it please.

Obviously if you read this based on the title. I assume you oppose the Tories.

But if you are wondering why labour are so keen to manage expectations. There is a reason.

Campaign funding wise the Tories are estimated to be 19m ahead of labour. But honestly at the moment they are not spending a huge amount more.

We know the Tories are skilled at election manipulation. So there is genuine fear that the Tories plan to launch a campaign within the last few days.

I.E. when there is less time and funding to ensure fact checking is effective.

They know Starmer is more publicity aware then Corbyn was. He is able to play it in a way that dose not scare traditional Conservative voters.

They also know thanks to Boris, that the courts are unable to punish them for outright lies during any political campaign. And that Rishi is prepared to lie about and accuse civil servants of lying when challenged.

As huge as polling is against the Tories. All it would take is some dramatic claim against the party or Starmer. To convince Tory traditional voters to bite their tongue and vote Tory. While convincing left wing voters not to vote or to switch to 3rd party in seats where labour are the 1st or 2nd party.

The fact we know they have a huge amount of money unspent. Makes it clear they plan to launch something nearer the end of the election. And the only advantage of leaving it so late. Is it will limit the ability of the party to effectively react. Or fact checkers to be able to prove and distribute evidence of lies.

Please be prepared for this.

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[–] wren@feddit.uk 21 points 5 months ago (8 children)

It's just getting more and more difficult to feel okay voting Labour. I know splitting the left wing vote isn't tactically smart, but voting for labour isn't even a left wing vote anymore :(

(I'm still pro-tactical voting, I'm just doing it with more frustration than ever before)

[–] jabjoe@feddit.uk 17 points 5 months ago (19 children)

There will literally be Tory trolls/bots pushing this narrative to split the Labour vote. Get the Tories out, then push Labour for PR, hard, to keep Tories out of unjust power.

[–] franklin@lemmy.world 7 points 5 months ago (1 children)

This is the exact same problem in the United States and even Canada right now. It's leading me to believe it's the inevitable conclusion of a first past the post system.

[–] jabjoe@feddit.uk 8 points 5 months ago (3 children)

FPTP has to go, but the further right the government, the hard it is to push them for it. A right Labour is better odds then any Conservative flavor, and it's not like the Conservatives are moving left right now.

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[–] Nakoichi@hexbear.net 14 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (13 children)

Well it would be nice if there was anything left of the left in UK labour. At the moment all you got is a transphobic piece of shit that is just slightly left on economic issues.

Yall really gotta get better to scrub off the stain of the currently accurate description of being TERF island.

And of course I am painfully selfaware that I am saying this from America where our choices are between two genocidal fascists credibly accused of SA

Tactical voting ourselves right into death camps is not the strategy you think it is.

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[–] HumanPenguin@feddit.uk 7 points 5 months ago

I’m just doing it with more frustration than ever before

Pretty sure that represents the labour lead atm. Def folks wanting to vote against tories rather then for labour. Unfortunately it also leave the Tories with an open attack vector. They just need to time the right attack to dramatically split the left vote in Lab seats where they are still 2nd.

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[–] Skua@kbin.earth 18 points 5 months ago (8 children)

Everyone, just please go and vote if you are able to. It's very little time out of your day and it's only once every few years. Remember that you do need photo ID this time

If you are interested in tactical voting, something our electoral system unfortunately incentivises, then there is https://stopthetories.vote/ to vote against the Conservatives

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[–] Espiritdescali 16 points 5 months ago (21 children)

Starmer purged the left wing from his party, he can't be surprised when they don't vote for him.

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[–] UKFilmNerd@feddit.uk 11 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Some of the voters are a bit scary too. I keep hearing a clip from LBC where some asks Starmer if he would've been in Corbyn's cabinet.

Starmer kicked Corbyn out. That's years ago. Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.

Finally, who are the 20% that would still vote Tory? Rich business people with no ethics?

[–] HumanPenguin@feddit.uk 6 points 5 months ago

Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.

Because that is where the Tories are likely spending some money. They keep bringing up the he supported Corbyn. They and the right wing of labour spent in the last election to destroy his reputation. So the Tory party sees it as a cheap attack to push the idea over social media.

I am a little disappointed that it is not answered with, how Rishi was willing to support a PM candidate with a racist publications in the media and later willing to lie to parliament to prevent their ability to shut down his policies.

[–] ProfessorOwl_PhD@hexbear.net 7 points 5 months ago (2 children)

Tories are pretty boned, period, whenever they launch their last push - the actual threat are Reform, who will either form a coalition with whoever it takes to gain a majority in this election, or outright win next time after the PLP fundamentally change nothing.

[–] HumanPenguin@feddit.uk 6 points 5 months ago (21 children)

Tories are pretty boned, period,

I am old enough to have thought that in the past. The money that backs the Tories will not give up. Given how open the party has been about its extrean right over the last few years.

Honestly until the 5th July it is very dangerous to think that way. All these predictions are based on 65 to 75% turn out. That is high. The Tories do not need to convince folks to vote Tory. They are better off stopping folks voting labour. At least in seats where a 3rd party is not closer to Tory in polling.

If they reduce turn out for labour while increasing support for more left of centre parties. They can do to labour what Corbyn did to may. Create a weak minority party where the existing devisions in the PLP prevent the party achieving much.

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[–] thr0w4w4y2@sh.itjust.works 6 points 4 months ago

jokes on them I already sent in my postal vote

[–] BakedGoods@sh.itjust.works 5 points 5 months ago

Remind your elders that a vote for Tories or Reform will result in them being alone, in a terrible home, or in the street.

Hard agree. They gutted the electoral commission while gerrymandering like crazy. They have an army of right wing boomers brow beating anyone they come across into the ground with their "the two parties are identical in every single way" BS (all claiming to be left wingers while doing so, of course). If labour had been betting on things, using insider knowledge, there would be arrests already. The Met police went to the most secure and videoed place in the country (10 downing street) and lied, telling the whole nation that there was no evidence of the parties they were having during lockdown. Etc etc etc.

The very wealthy people and powerful people they represent won't go quietly, if at all, and they have no morals.

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