this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2025
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I think I'd take that bet!
I'm super curious how the base will see it. On the one hand, he did win a much larger percentage of the popular vote than most Conservative leaders have won while making inroads in traditionally Left areas.
But, he also lost one of the largest polling leads in modern Canadian history...
On the other hand, the Liberals won in large part because of voters from the NDP/Greens defected to the Liberals... But then how much of that was to keep Poilievre out versus some other Con?
You could go nuts going back and forth on that.
Not only did he lose the lead, he failed to even get elected and had to be given the literal safest riding for a Conservative in the country to get a seat. Which I feel is not the best sign for someone who's career has entirely revolved around politics.
I literally don't know how it could be seen another way, which is how I know his dumb fuck base will keep him.
The seat, that's because that was likely one of the most junior members of the party ("seniority sucks until you're senior") and the election... Well, they cracked 40% which they hadn't done since '88.
So the question for their base becomes "which is more likely, Poilievre keeps most of his coalition together or everyone else in Canada bands together to stop him again?"
Personally, I have trouble imagining the NDP/Greens don't recover to some degree.
Throw in economic pain from tarrifs etc and well, unless you really expect Carney to magically fix large systemic global problems...