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All it takes is one civilization to shoot off their mouth and get destroyed by a much more advanced neighbor, in some way that doesn't look quite natural. That will tend to confirm the cosmic paranoia.
As I said elsewhere: that's no longer a dark forest. The moment one civilisation speaks up, they all know they're not alone. Then they're in a different universe, one where there's no longer a paradox because they've found each other.
You're arguing based on a lot of misconceptions about the idea. Have you read "Three Body Problem" and/or the other books in the series?
Maybe you could explain the idea then? No, I haven't read that book.