chapotraphouse

I see questions like "why hasn't Trump gotten CIA'd if he's ruining the American Empire?" I think the capitalist factions in power have their reasons to back this tariff terrorism.

Are Trump, Vance, and Musk actually morons who believe the American propaganda? Of course, but the real oligarchs who back their regime aren't real morons. Everyone in power since Obama has seen the writing on the wall: that China is the rising power and the American Empire is on the decline. The Obama faction decided to "Pivot to Asia" to slow this decline. Use military power and the Trans Pacific Partnership to isolate China as best as they could, hold onto whatever power they have in the region at all costs.

Trump in his first time, and later Biden, continued this logic but with emphasis on Europe. Trump in 2017 wanted to keep NATO in line and Biden used Ukraine and CHIPS to deepen EU reliance on American oil. Again, the overall strategy is "hold onto what we have to stave off American loss of international power."

But now it's clear that the US does not have control over traditional allies. Pissrael does as it pleases, Russia hasn't been brought to heel, and the EU wants to move closer to China. What is a US imperialist to do, more of the same?

Along comes Trump's return. The financial class that really runs this country hasn't stopped his trade wars, hasn't stopped his dismantling of soft power like USAID, hasn't disciplined him with a capital strike/flight. This means to me, they are willing to go in on the strategy. Trump is pressing the economic nuke, he's crashing the global economy and betting that the US will get hurt less than the rest of the world. And then maybe, EU and China will get hurt enough that the US can take big enough bites of their meals to survive.

In our reading group on Super Imperialism, we read about how US dollar hegemony is based on the recycling of dollars through US Treasury bonds. Essentially, the US is a net importer and runs a high deficit. As the US buys from advanced economies like China, EU, and Japan those nations build up a surplus of US dollars. Those countries don't want to spend USD on goods, because putting those dollars back into the material economy would lower the comparative value of USD. That would mean the RMB, Euros, and yen would have a harder time competing against American goods. These countries NEED the US (and other countries) to buy their goods and so they need USD to be stable. So they purchase US Treasury bonds, which gives them a productive investment without hurting the dollar. The US benefits immensely from this which is exactly what Obama-ites want to protect. It also means advanced economies are literally invested in the US economy as a major store of value.

However, this relationship probably can't last forever. So Trump and cronies are pulling the biggest card they have, the card nobody expected them to play. The world runs on American dollars so they're pulling the rug out. They're betting that the PRC and EU will be so hurt by a trade war that they'll either crash and burn or come to the table to beg for relief. Sure China is the world's factory, but the CPC has shown its main goal is stability for the Chinese people so it's a logical assumption they'll compromise rather than crash. The EU, Canada, and Mexico will surely hurt which will open up their industries for US banks to buy in at a bargain.

The logic is, if the system is gonna fall apart then the US should break it on its own terms rather than let the gradual decline happen. Will the bet pan out for US oligarchs? I really have no idea.