Western officials have accused Russia and its proxies of staging dozens of attacks and other incidents across Europe since the invasion of Ukraine three years ago, according to data collected by The Associated Press.
They allege the disruption campaign is an extension of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war, intended to sow division in European societies and undermine support for Ukraine.
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The alleged disruption has a double purpose, James Appathurai, the NATO official responsible for the alliance’s response to such threats, told the AP.
One is to create “political disquiet” and undermine citizens’ support for their governments and the other is to “undercut support for Ukraine,” said Appathurai, deputy assistant secretary-general for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber.
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The cases are varied, and the largest concentrations are in countries that are major supporters of Ukraine.
Some incidents had the potential for catastrophic consequences, including mass casualties, as when packages exploded at shipping facilities in Germany and the U.K. Western officials said they suspected the packages were part of a broader plot by Russian intelligence to put bombs on cargo planes headed to the U.S. and Canada.
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European authorities are investigating several cases of damage to infrastructure under the Baltic Sea, including to a power cable linking Estonia and Finland. Finnish authorities detained a ship, suspected of being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to avoid sanctions, after that cable and others were damaged.
When a fake French Defense Ministry website claimed citizens were being called up to fight in Ukraine, a French minister denounced it as Russian disinformation. German authorities suspect Russia was behind a campaign to block up scores of car tailpipes ahead of national elections, according to a European intelligence official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
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Countries have always spied on their enemies and long waged propaganda campaigns to further their interests abroad. But since the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has become “bolder,” hitting the West with sabotage, vandalism and arson in addition to the tactics it previously used, including killings and cyberattacks, said Elisabeth Braw, an expert on the attacks at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
“The way you can weaken a country today is not by invading it,” she said.
China has also been accused of espionage and cyber operations in Europe, and The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukrainian authorities were responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in 2022. Kyiv has denied this.
“Multiple countries engage in hybrid operations,” said David Salvo, managing director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund. “Russia is the overwhelming culprit in Europe.”
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What would you propose?
Im with you on that, but as you I’m not exactly sure what to do.
Everyone knows it’s Russia, but we can’t officially admit it - because if we did, it would demand consequences. But either the consequences we propose would be toothless, and a capitulation before Russia. Or, the consequences would be so drastic that war would escalate. And Russia is the one with the nukes.
So, that leaves us in an awkward position where the only thing we can do is … counterintelligence?