this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2025
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I think this prompted investors to ask "where's the ROI?".
Current AI investment hype isn't based on anything tangible. At least the amount of investment isn't, it is absurd to think that trillion dollars that was put in the space already, even before that Softbanks deal is going to be returned. The models still hallucinate as it is inherent to the architecture, we are nowhere near replacing the workers but we got chatbots that "when they work sometimes, then they are kind of good?" and mediocre off-putting pictures. Is there any value? Sure, it's not NFTs. But the correction might be brutal.
Interestingly enough, DeepSeek's model is released just before Q4 earning's call season, so we will see if it has a compounding effect with another statement from big players that they burned massive amount of compute and USD only to get milquetoast improvements and get owned by a small Chinese startup that allegedly can do all that for 5 mil.
I have a dirty suspicion that the "where's the ROI?" talking point is actually a calculated and collaborated strategy by big wall street banks to panic retail investors to sell so they can gobble up shares at a discount - trump is going to be pumping (at minimum) hundreds of BILLIONS into these companies in the near future.
Call me a conspiracy guy, but I've seen this playbook many many times
I mean, I'm working on that tech and the evaluation boggles my mind. This is nowhere near worth what is put into it. It rides on empty promises that may or may not materialize (I can't say with 100% certainty that a breakthrough happen), but current models are massively overvalued. I've seen that happen with ConvNets (Hinton saying we won't need radiologists in five years in....2016, self-driving cars promised every two years, yadda yadda) but nothing to that scale.
Right - the entire stock market doesn't make sense, doesn't seem to stop Tesla or any of the other massively overvalued stocks. Btw stocks have been massively overvalued for over a decade, but that's a different topic