this post was submitted on 10 Oct 2024
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[–] Krauerking@lemy.lol 7 points 1 month ago (1 children)

As in that's such a small group they are probably more dedicated to their candidate and won't vote for anyone else.

Again. You can't expect to remove candidates from a ballot and their support will all just vote Democrat. It's a false logic to assume they belong to anywhere else other than their vote block.
When you have a large base that small percentage that's willing to vote off base ends up being a larger percentage of the vote overall as well.

Currently you would have to get every single last green party voter to give up and vote Blue which is an impossible ask. So even at 5% of the vote I'm not sure they could swing an election with enough if their candidate asked nicely.
They went high with their estimate though.

[–] KillingTimeItself@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

yeah, my 10% figure was probably generous, but i think i would probably stand by it in most cases, as unless you're polling 20% at bare minimum you're probably dropping out of primaries anyway out of fears of "siphoning" votes. Realistically the outcome between the two alternatives here is probably marginal, if at all.