"Peace" summit without inviting the other side is a blatant farce. it's just the next attempt to make neutral countries pour money into that war, it's a war summit.

[–] ascril@lemmy.ml -2 points 5 months ago (2 children)

I think, that "the other side" should be invited, but after Putin declaring his vision of "peace" I am more than convinced that he is not interested in any kind of peacful resolution of this conflict. If he can maintain and legalized any current territorial gains it would only be the fuel for future aggression.

[–] Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml 16 points 5 months ago (1 children)

This is very delusional thinking. Imagine trying to negotiate with the winning side and your minimum negotiating conditions are for the winning side to just abandon all of their gains for no discernible reason. This too while the winning side offers generous terms which still leave Ukraine with access to ports and most of its territory, despite Ukraine being in a desperate situation now.

It is even more farcical when consider that these demands are already the de facto conditions. Russia holds most of the territories it is demanding. There are no current plans for Ukraine to join NATO as NATO doesn't accept members already active in war, and the NATO countries have no actual plan for either shoring up Ukraine's security in the future or even for rebuilding. The closest NATO states got was trying to use $50 billion from Russian funds to loan to Ukraine for rebuilding, which they didn't even go through with because the deal involved the EU taking all of the risk while benefiting the Americans.

In fact, ending the conflict now on Putin's recent terms is more beneficial to Ukraine and NATO than it is to Russia, even if the conflict were to start up again in the future. The returning Ukrainian refugees will restore Ukraine's manpower, and the NATO militaries will gain the time needed to restock weapon supplies, which they need more than the Russians do because Russian (and allied) military production is higher than that of NATO in volume.

I am of the opinion that the terms Putin has offered are cynically generous. He knows that the west won't let Ukraine end the conflict right now, so he can afford to boost his image right now. In later negotiations, he can point back to these terms and tell the Ukrainians that if they wanted better terms, they could have gotten them earlier.

[–] ascril@lemmy.ml -1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Ok, I see that your pespective of this conflict is tottaly different than mine. But I don't see how exactly Russia is winning now. It's very a Pyrrhic victory at best. I don't know why exactly Putin starter whole thing but I am sure he still wants to take whole country. Agreeing on this terms (which are absurd IMO) it's agreeing for even bigger conflict in the future. And what's with all war crimes committed during this 'special operation'? I am from Poland and we see this totally different. Even from historical point of view I can see similarities to situation during II World War when nobody helped us against Germany and Russian aggression. I really want peace, but this 'generous offer' was not generous at all and I am sure Putin know this. From my point of view making such big concessions are inviting to another war after few years on much bigger scale and I am afraid of it.

[–] Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml 8 points 5 months ago

Russia is winning because it has developed a steady momentum for keeping losses low while attriting Ukrainian forces harshly.

The victory is not by any means a phyrric victory, given that the Russian army is now larger, more experienced and has more material than the start of the war. The Russian economy is also holding up. The only thing that could be phyrric about the war is the loss of life, which is still not too high for russia.

Given the recent offerings, it is obvious that putin does not want to take the whole country of Ukraine. Not only will russia have to pay for the rebuilding, but it will have to face massive amounts of internal resistance for years to come, which is a headache that russia has no reason to deal with as long as they get their demand of no nato membership.

Finally the terms themselves are very generous as I have previously outlined. The loosing side in a war doesn't just get to keep everything with no concessions. That is not how wars work. I have also clearly stated the reasons why a ceasefire now on putin's terms is actually beneficial for Ukraine especially if the war were to flare up again. It would buy them time to recover fighting strength while the Russians would have to unwind their militarization, as maintaining a war economy outside of war would not be taken well by the population.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 8 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Putin literally put out a very realistic version of what peace could look like today. The west rejected it. That's the reality.

[–] ascril@lemmy.ml -1 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

It's very naive vision of peace. It's giving more time for Putin to prepare even bigger offensive. He still want whole country, that's for sure. Agreeing on this terms it's like your neighbour break to your apartment through the wall, brick up the door and he demand in the court to accept new reality.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 4 points 5 months ago (1 children)

No, it's a very realistic vision of peace and the best one Ukraine can hope for. Putin doesn't need time to prepare, the offensive is already happening all across the front, and Ukraine is losing the war of attrition as even western media openly admits now. Western support for Ukraine has peaked during the disastrous offensive last year, and that was the best chance Ukraine was going to have to make any changes in this war. Anybody who still can't get this through their skulls really needs to start engaging with reality.

[–] ascril@lemmy.ml -3 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Lol, why being so aggressive? My skull is ok, thank you. Putin can stop this war at any moment if he want. He started war not other way around. He took Crimea in 2014 and it was good enough for him? No. How can you be so sure that these new territorial gains are good enough for him? I doubt it. The cost of this whole operation was gigantic in terms of manpower and military equipment. I don't think in his eyes this whole sacrifice is good enough. The biggest gain Russia got from this situation is that Putin got more internal power because he could more openly fight with internal opposition, realistically speaking. Even if he can remain new lands why it is so important? Once there was some good industry infrastructure but after aggression I doubt it would be great deal. I think that he wants to create more confusion in Western partners or just regroup. He can maintain this conflict, even Russia can take some more territories but we see already that's not easy and in the last year the initiative belongs to them but gains in this time are insignificant at best. If Putin really wants peace on these terms it's signs that he feels strongest now because if he would think otherwise, that he could take more lands, he would definitely take this opportunity.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 7 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Lol, why being so aggressive? My skull is ok, thank you.

Hundreds of thousands of lives have already been because of the support for the war from people like you, but that's just not enough you need more people to die before you accept the reality of the situation.

Putin can stop this war at any moment if he want.

Since that's obviously not going to happen, I don't know why you're regurgitating this talking point that you've memorized. Also, the head of NATO has now publicly admitted why the war started

The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn't sign that.

The opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second class membership. We rejected that.

So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders. He has got the exact opposite.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_218172.htm

NYT has also just published the terms of the agreement that could've stopped the war 2 months after it started that the west tanked

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html

If Putin really wants peace on these terms it’s signs that he feels strongest now because if he would think otherwise, that he could take more lands, he would definitely take this opportunity.

Wrong again, this was an offer that Russia will refer to when Ukraine is no longer in existence to point out that there was a way to save Ukraine that the west rejected. Don't take it from me though, here is what western military analysts have to say on who will have the upper hand going forward:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine

[–] ascril@lemmy.ml -3 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Hundreds of thousands of lives have already been because of the support for the war from people like you, but that’s just not enough you need more people to die before you accept the reality of the situation.

I don't need anyone to die, it's not my fault that Russia attacked Ukraine! I am from east Poland and we have literally millions of Ukrainians in our country, mostly refugees who wanted to run from war. My daughter plays on playground with Ukrainian girl, she even comes to our home. You can be cool about it but we've seen these people, we helped them. It's not that we want war, we want opposite. We want peace but also we want some justice, even little would be fine. From this point of view the proposition of Putin just cannot be accepted. Before II World War Hitler also was doing whatever he wanted, he took Czechoslovakia, than Poland and nobody wanted to do anything.

Since that’s obviously not going to happen, I don’t know why you’re regurgitating this talking point that you’ve memorized. Also, the head of NATO has now publicly admitted why the war started

I can understand that you don't like NATO, I think if NATO seriously wanted Ukraine to win they could do more from the start. NATO provided enough equipment to Ukraine not to die but not enough for them to win. But that's not justify all aggression and horror Russia brings. Moreover, Putin started conscription before he sent his treaty to not enlarge NATO. I think he just wanted casus belli for aggression. You can disagree with someone but it's not reason to fight with him. And why Crimea was taken? Why Yanukovych had to flee to Russia? Why Donbas war started in 2014? Putin planned to take control over Ukraine many years earlier and this war is his way to take control by force but it backfired. Putin thought that West is weak and he wanted to take advantage from it. Not liking NATO cannot be reason to say that Russia had right to do what they did.

Wrong again, this was an offer that Russia will refer to when Ukraine is no longer in existence to point out that there was a way to save Ukraine that the west rejected.

Sorry, I don't know what you referring to? Could you elaborate about this offer? Are you referring current offer or some earlier one?

Don’t take it from me though, here is what western military analysts have to say on who will have the upper hand going forward

I get it, Russia is master in attritional war but even they cannot maintain war forever. They are at war now and they stuck on border with Donbas. They progressing but very slowly. A lot depends on whom wins next elections in USA because Trump probably just will try to end war at all costs, no matter what.

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 4 points 5 months ago (1 children)

I don’t need anyone to die, it’s not my fault that Russia attacked Ukraine!

You very clearly do since you reject peace that's on the table. In fact, you're the kind of person who wants other people to die for your ideals. The worst kind of individual. This war is happening because of the west. Period.

It could've been avoided entirely, and it could've been stopped two months in, and it could be stopped right now. The west wants to fight this war to the last Ukrainian. There's even a whole study RAND put out explaining in great detail why US in particular wanted this war https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html

But that’s not justify all aggression and horror Russia brings.

This is just useless moralizing that accomplishes nothing and helps nobody. The reality of the situation is that Russia is going to win this war, and the only question is how many people will die or have their lives ruined in the process. What the west is doing is ensuring that this number is as high as possible.

Moreover, Putin started conscription before he sent his treaty to not enlarge NATO.

Moreover, you evidently aren't aware of the fact that Russia has had compulsory military service since it was part of USSR.

I think he just wanted casus belli for aggression.

The RAND study I linked above explains who wanted casus belli for aggression in black and white.

Why Donbas war started in 2014?

Because US backed nationalists overthrew the legitimate government in Ukraine and started doing ethnic cleansing. This is something that's pretty well documented.

Putin planned to take control over Ukraine many years earlier and this war is his way to take control by force but it backfired.

This is what's called historical revisionism.

Sorry, I don’t know what you referring to? Could you elaborate about this offer? Are you referring current offer or some earlier one?

I'm referring to the current offer that was just made days ago, as well as the Istanbul agreement that the west sabotaged.

I get it, Russia is master in attritional war but even they cannot maintain war forever.

Russia doesn't need to maintain the war forever. Ukraine is literally running out of trained soldiers already, and you can't create an army by kidnapping people off the street. At some point the inflection point will be reached where there's simply not enough professional core left in the army to hold things together, and the collapse will happen rapidly at that point the same way it happened to the Germans in WW2.

Furthermore, Russian economy is now growing having become the 4th largest while western economies are going into recessions with domestic unrest becoming sharper by the day. Russia will very obviously outlast the west. Whether Trump or Biden wins the election will not change the direction of travel because the problem the west faces is the its lack of industrial capacity.

[–] ascril@lemmy.ml -2 points 5 months ago (1 children)

This war is happening because of the west. Period.

This is just useless moralizing that accomplishes nothing and helps nobody.

The RAND study I linked above explains who wanted casus belli for aggression in black and white.

I think that you are not interested in peace in the first place but in Russia winning (correct me if I'm wrong). You have right for your own vision for reality (at least in some countries...).

I don't to want to try to change your mind but at least take into consideration that this whole conflict is not as black and white situation as you trying to show. There is no such thing as the objective truth. And everybody lies at least at some degree.

I just hope this war and war in Gaza end soon and everyone just will try to live in peace.✌️

[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml 3 points 5 months ago

I think that you are not interested in peace in the first place but in Russia winning (correct me if I’m wrong). You have right for your own vision for reality (at least in some countries…).

I'm explaining to you that there is no reality where Russia does not win this war. This is has been understood by anybody with a functioning brain even before this war started. Plenty of people in the west warned against NATO expansion into Ukraine precisely for this reason. Here is what Obama had to say on the subject all the way back in 2016:

Obama declares Ukraine to be not a core American interest and that he is reluctant to intervene in the country, because Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there. “The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-NATO country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do.”—President Obama

https://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2016/03/the-obama-doctrine-the-atlantics-exclusive-report-on-presidents-hardest-foreign-policy-decisions/473151/

People who still can't understand that the west can't defeat Russia in Ukraine are simply not engaging with the real world.

I don’t to want to try to change your mind but at least take into consideration that this whole conflict is not as black and white situation as you trying to show. There is no such thing as the objective truth. And everybody lies at least at some degree.

There absolutely is such a thing as objective material reality, but you are correct that everybody views reality through their own subjective lens. That doesn't mean that objective reality doesn't exist however, or that people can't come to a consensus on what is actually happening in the world.

In case of the war of Ukraine, regardless of what people believe currently, they will eventually be forced to grapple with the fact that the west lost the war. And I sincerely hope that at that point at least some introspection will happen from people who've been cheer leading the war from the western side. I hope you will ask yourself what this was all for, and whether it would've been better to avoid the war.

The genocide in Gaza is incidentally another example of an atrocity directly facilitated by the US. The only reason Israel is able to conduct mass murder is thanks to material support and political cover that US provides. This makes the US a direct participant in the genocide.