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Biden supporters mostly back him in 2024 election because they oppose Trump, poll finds
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2024
664 points (94.4% liked)
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While it's obviously not good to have a low approval rating, it also doesn't tell you whether or not a person will vote for him. I don't approve of him, but will still vote for him because there's no other viable non-fascist alternative.
It doesn't tell you whether a person will vote against them, but its a classic litmus test for turnout in favor. Below 50% approval rating signals a higher than average likelihood of an incumbent losing one's seat. And the only countervailing narrative is when the primary opposition also has low approval.
Obama beating Romney in '12 was a case of two Presidential candidates being underwater and Romney simply having worse negatives than Obama on election day. Both parties saw a drop-off in voter participation relative to the '08 high water mark.