this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2024
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I keep up with it - whether nuclear winter would happen is still controversial. It all comes down to how much of the houses-and-people smoke reaches the stratosphere, and there's actually a ton of variables to do with ash type, rubble, sunlight absorption and so on that make it tricky. It's not exactly the same as a wildfire.
I don't really expect Russia to do it, no. It's just kind of an omnipresent long term risk. And yeah, it certainly wouldn't be the end of all humanity, and Australia would have a chance to pull through, although they'd have to fend off a lot of hungry invaders. There's no worse scenario, though, except something cosmological deciding to show up this year out of 4.5 billion. If I hadn't of mentioned it someone 100% would have come at me with it as a thing that could end civilisation, if not neccesarily the species.