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If Covid hadn't pushed vote by mail so hard in 2020, Biden would not have won. It was only because vote by mail increased voter engagement that Biden got it.
Engagement is going to be down in '24, vote by mail won't be the same option it was in lots of places, and that's going to make it a lot harder for Biden to win.
Not just vote by mail.
Lots of states finally moved away from requiring a specific polling location to anywhere in your city/county.
Which essentially broke the biggest waits. Who would stand in line for hours instead of driving to a different one if they had the option?
Pre-covid my 15 minute round trip for voting was about an hour at best, including 30 minutes driving. Because the polling location I had to go to wasn't the closest, served a large area, and was pretty tiny with very few machines. They never even had stickers.
Now I get to go to the "rich" polling location that's in walking distance, has a bunch of machines and volunteers, and gives out legit breakfast bags to every voter.
That also drastically helped Biden, I believe it'll stick around tho.
I highly doubt this.