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Ooh, someone finally realized current polling is way off from the actual results at the voting booth.
The #GOP finally caught the car, now they are getting pulled under the tire.
I'm looking forward to the GOP joining the Know-Nothings in the trash bin of history.
The number is 10k per day.
I did the math a few years ago because I couldn't find anyone else who had published it. This is rough and IANAM (mathmagicman).
Every single day 8,000 boomers and above die, and 12,000 people turn 18 and those numbers are actually accelerating. If you use existing data to estimate conservative/liberal and likely voters within those groups it works out to a delta of 10,000 per day on a national scale. That's 5,000 votes switching every single day. That might not seem like alot. Because it really isn't. Out of 155 million votes cast, 10,000 is .006 percent. But here's the thing. It's cumulative. And it just doesn't stop. It is relentless. it's 300k a month, 3.6 million per year. And that pace is accelerating. Between 2020 and 2024 it's a 15 million vote difference. By 2028 it's 30 million. It used to be that people age into conservatism. But that is not happening with millennials. The demographics are changing, and changing quickly. The most conservative group in the country is dying. While the most liberal group is rising.
We just have to hold on to democracy for a few more years. This will all be behind us. Another 10k today.
I love the math, but this assumes that all people vote. And we know Republicans have been attacking the voting rights of people for decades now and that too is accelerating.
They have to cheat to win even now.
They literally started their math is based on voting population in their post. Sure, this doesn't account for cheating, but the Dems are also making headway on minimizing gerrymandering in a lot of swing states.
Not to mention, gerrymandering straight up stops working once the demographics are so skewed that it can’t compensate for them any longer. I just hope we can keep this place a (small-d) democracy long enough for that to happen.
Not only does it stop working, it becomes insurmountable for the party that did the gerrymandering.
You'll soon see GOP House reps suing to toss out maps they created.
You counting the coups planned too?